China’s air and maritime coercion

Countries that challenge China’s illegal claims

Countries that challenge China’s illegal claims

Why challenge China’s excessive claims?

International militaries have operated in and around the South China Sea and in East Asia for decades. For example, Australia and the US have had a regular military presence in the region since World War II, sending planes and vessels to the region to strengthen military ties with partner countries, showcase military capabilities and engage in joint exercises and humanitarian missions. Those interactions with foreign militaries largely occurred without incident.

However, over the past decade, we’ve seen a change in China’s behaviour. With international law doing little to deter China’s aggressive actions and territorial ambitions, more countries are challenging China’s excessive claims during their regular visits to the region. Those challenges seek to uphold international law and preserve the openness of sea lanes that international trade relies on.

Who challenges China’s excessive claims?

Before 2020 (when Covid-19 interrupted military deployments), the US had the most regular presence in the South China Sea, and Australia also sent multiple naval ships to the region each year. Canadian and New Zealand ships sailed through the South China Sea when capacity allowed. France and the UK also sent ships to the region, but, due to distance, deployments were on a less-than-annual basis. Those deployments allowed countries to challenge China’s excessive claims. Japan’s navy was present in the South China Sea but avoided confrontation with China.

Across 2023 and 2024, we’ve seen all those countries step up their presence and be joined by others. In 2024, more European navies operated in East Asia and the South China Sea than in recent years; the UK, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands all sent ships to the region. Meanwhile, countries such as the US, Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand all continued their longstanding presence.

South Korea and India are two notable nations that don’t actively challenge China’s claims in the region through military means. The maritime states of Southeast Asia routinely operate in and over the South China Sea, but most militaries don’t actively challenge China’s claims like the US and others. The Philippines military and coastguard challenges China, but only within Manila’s jurisdiction.

What do challenges involve?

Countries have taken different approaches to using military forces to challenge China’s excessive claims in the South China Sea. As the chart below outlines, some militaries operate within China’s Nine-Dash Line, knowing that they’ll be closely shadowed by the PLA. Others fly planes and sail naval ships directly through the Spratly Islands to challenge China’s claims.

Only a few militaries challenge China’s claims in the Paracel Islands, because doing so is particularly risky. While there are fewer military challenges in the Paracels, the most dangerous Chinese intercepts have occurred there. The US is the only country to send aircraft or ships within 12 nautical miles of claimed features.

Some countries advertise their activities, releasing public statements after challenges have taken place, including the US, UK, France and Canada. However, many don’t, which makes it difficult to determine how often they challenge China’s excessive claims. As explained in Policy considerations, that affects deterrence. By doing that, nation-states also deprive their citizens of information that contributes to a more informed public discourse on defence and security issues.

Presence prior to 2020
Presence in 2024
Maintains a regular presence
Challenges Spratly claims
Challenges Paracel claims
Challenges within 12nm
Publicises challenges
USA

The US has the most active military presence in the region. In 2023, the US military conducted 107 activities in the South China Sea, including several transits under its Freedom of Navigation Program to challenge China’s excessive claims in the Paracel and Spratly islands. The US almost always has an aircraft carrier in the region. It conducted around 1,000 flights in 2023 using reconnaissance aircraft flying out of Japan. US military challenges to China’s excessive claims are typically accompanied by strong public statements from Washington. While the US is a vocal supporter of international law, Washington has not ratified UNCLOS, which undermines its public support for the convention.

Australia

Australia has a longstanding military presence in the South China Sea. It challenges China’s excessive claims in the Spratly Islands, both unilaterally and with its security partners. Australia also operates very close to the Paracel Islands and is likely to seek to challenge China’s claims there. However, because Canberra doesn’t advertise its challenges, the exact tempo and nature of Australia’s military challenges are hard to determine.

Canada

Canada has a growing presence in the South China Sea and has been increasingly transparent about how it challenges China’s excessive claims. In August 2024, Canada placed a journalist on HMCS Montreal. Besides the US, few other countries have done that. And that ship was closely shadowed by China’s military as it undertook a 26-hour transit through the Spratly Islands. Canada has operated close to the Paracel Islands, but, as demonstrated when a Chinese fighter fired flares near a Canadian helicopter in 2023, doing so comes with risks.

France

France is on the front foot in advertising its military activities and the importance of upholding international law. The French Navy has regularly sailed through the South China Sea as part of its stated bid to uphold a rules-based maritime order. In 2015, France exercised its right to freedom of navigation by sailing a taskforce through the Paracel and Spratly islands. France has continued to send warships to the South China Sea and has been increasingly operating with partners, as it did during trilateral operations with the US and Australia in April 2024.

UK

Britain’s Royal Navy maintains a permanent presence in the region through the deployment of offshore patrol vessels HMS Tamar and HMS Spey. The UK sent a carrier strike group through the South China Sea in 2021 and intends to do so again in late 2025. The British military operates close to the Spratly and Paracel islands and uses public messaging to reinforce the importance of sailing in those areas. In 2018, the UK sailed a warship into the Paracel Islands, challenging China’s illegal claims there.

Japan

Japan has a growing military presence in the region and is increasingly working with security partners, such as the US, Australia and the Philippines, including recently in April 2024. There have been several reports of Japan actively challenging China’s claims in the Spratly Islands. However, Tokyo doesn’t confirm where its military operates when in the South China Sea, so the exact nature and tempo of its challenges are difficult to determine.

New Zealand

New Zealand has conducted transits through the South China Sea for decades. It also sends reconnaissance planes to uphold UN sanctions against North Korea. Wellington’s military presence in the region isn’t as regular as larger nations’; however, the tempo of its activities is commensurate to the size of its military. In June 2023, a New Zealand frigate was confronted by two Chinese warships in the Spratly Islands. As with Australia, the exact nature of New Zealand’s challenges is difficult to determine, as Wellington doesn’t advertise them.

Germany

Germany conducted its first Indo-Pacific deployment in 2021. During that deployment, a German frigate traversed the South China Sea but stayed on international shipping routes. In 2024, Germany conducted its second Indo-Pacific deployment, sending a frigate and a replenishment ship to operate in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea. There were no reports of the ships directly challenging China’s claims in the South China Sea; however, the ships were closely shadowed by China’s military throughout the deployment.

Netherlands

The Netherlands sent a frigate to accompany a British carrier strike group to the region in 2021. The Dutch have announced that they’ll continue to send naval ships to the Indo-Pacific every two years to demonstrate their willingness to defend shared values. In June 2024, HNLMS Tromp was conducting activities in the East China Sea when it was subjected to dangerous manoeuvres by China’s military.

Italy

In 2024 the Italian Navy’s flagship, the aircraft carrier Cavour, conducted a deployment to the Indo-Pacific region. The strike group, comprising 1,200 personnel, transited the South China Sea but didn’t conduct freedom-of-navigation operations. That marked the group’s inaugural deployment to the Indo-Pacific region.

Unsafe military interactions